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October 28, 2008 - National General Election Ballot


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Source: American Research Group


While the national ballot has remained unchanged since the last week of September, Barack Obama continues to gain electoral votes. Obama now leads in 30 states with a total of 375 electoral votes and John McCain leads in 21 states with a total of 163 electoral votes.


Obama could lose Florida, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia and still have 278 electoral votes.


Approximately 72% of Obama's national ballot share of 50% comes from states where Obama leads. Approximately 39% of McCain's national ballot share of 45% comes from states where McCain leads. In the September 20-22 survey when Obama was leading McCain 280 to 258 in electoral votes, 26% of Obama's national ballot share of 48% came from states where Obama was leading and 26% of McCain's national ballot share of 46% came from states where McCain was leading.

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Guest Patrick J. Buchanan

Undeniably, a powerful tide is running for the Democratic Party, with one week left to Election Day.


Bush's approval rating is 27 percent, just above Richard Nixon's Watergate nadir and almost down to Carter-Truman lows. After each of those presidents reached their floors -- in 1952, 1974, 1980 -- the opposition party captured the White House.

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Guest Newt Gingrich

Fast forward 23 days. It's November 17. Congress convenes for a special session with a veto-proof Democratic majority Senate, an expanded Democrat majority in the House and a Democrat in the White House.


The sole item on their agenda is to pass the $300 billion government spending package promised by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi back in October.


There is no mistaking what is coming. Even before Democrats won sweeping, one-party control of Washington, they had made their intentions to increase taxes and spending clear.


Originally pegged at $150 billion, Pelosi's spending package ballooned as time went on.

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The election is still winnable for McCain. Remember that pollsters are factoring into their results an assumed higher black turnout and higher youth turnout than normal. Also, remember that Republican voters—especially this year, with Democratic politicians attributing opposition to Obama to racism or redneck prejudice—are far coyer about answering pollsters.

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