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What Is Chaos Theory?


Guest Gus A. Koehler

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Guest Gus A. Koehler

There are many events that we can predict in organizational life, the arrival of our pay check is an example. Month after month we know the exact date that we will paid on. The pay system cycle is predictable; we can know that so many days from today a pay check will arrive.

 

Other organizational systems, such as the amount of time involved in handling service orders is not predictable. One service order can take a great deal of time, another no time at all, leading to wide variations as time passes.10 The time it takes to complete the next order cannot be predicted because different processing rules may apply and/or the complexity of the order itself can not be predicted. In this case, and in other similar systems that are aperiodic and sensitive to small changes, researchers use chaos theory to investigate its long term behavior, and its dynamic of change.

 

Kellert notes:

 

"As a qualitative study, chaos theory investigates a system by asking about the general character of its long-term behavior, rather than seeking to arrive a numerical predictions about its exact future state. ...It typically asks such questions as, what characteristics will all solutions of this system ultimately exhibit? And how does this system change from exhibiting one kind of behavior to another kind?"

 

The results of individual measurements can not be predicted but a large number of measurements taken over an extended period of time reveal a hidden pattern. Responding to service orders exhibits such a deep pattern. Merry provides a useful definition of chaos: "Chaos is the irregular, uncertain, discontinuous aspect of change within the confines of a patterned whole." Given our discussion of how unpredictable a disaster response is, chaos theory may be a useful way to understand this complex phenomena.

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